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Journal Of Industrial Economics


We use Monte Carlo experiments to study how pass-through can improve merger price predictions, focusing on the first order approximation (FOA) proposed in Jaffe and Weyl [2013]. FOA addresses the functional form misspecification that can exist in standard merger simulations. We find that the predictions of FOA are tightly distributed around the true price effects if pass-through is precise, but that measurement error in pass-through diminishes accuracy. As a comparison to FOA, we also study a methodology that uses pass-through to select among functional forms for use in simulation. This alternative also increases accuracy relative to standard merger simulation and proves more robust to measurement error.


This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: N. H. Miller, Marc Remer, C. Ryan, and G. Sheu. (2016). "Pass-Through And The Prediction Of Merger Price Effects". Journal Of Industrial Economics. Volume 64, Issue 4. 683-709. , which has been published in final form at This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.

The final publication version can be freely accessed courtesy of Wiley's Content Sharing service.

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